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Lebanese CP Monthly Bulletin - 9
Issued by the Foreign Affairs Committee Of the Lebanese Communist Party http://www.lcparty.org , mailto:mariedebs@dm.net.lb On the Situation in Lebanon and the Region
Firstly, regarding the American – NATO military escalation Despite the consecutive blows that it suffered last year, in what it chooses to term its ‘war on terror, the SA continues to expand its military presence in the world; and indeed is trying with the help of its allies to open new fronts with a dual aim: ·    First to try to score some partial victories which may go some way to justifying the high cost of recent decisions adopted by the Obama administration, both financially and in terms of human casualties. AT the forefront of these decisions is the increase in the number of troops in Afghanistan, the intensification of the American and NATO presence in the Gulf Region (in Yemen specifically) and the increase in the American troop presence in Latin America. ·    Secondly, to provide new momentum to its strategic goal, namely to surround China and Russia, which revitalizes the original American plan known as the New World Order after it suffered several setbacks some due to military setbacks and some due to the international global crisis of capitalism. In its attempt to effect a geopolitical change in Europe and Asia, the American military is being active on two fronts: ·    The first front, moving towards Korea and Taiwan, i.e. towards China. The USA recently announced an agreement worth 6.2 billion US dollars for the arming of the Taiwanese army with 60 advanced helicopters and ground to surface missiles. Simultaneously, there has been a clear escalation in Korea, where new military maneuvers were announced, to coincide with the annual maneuvers and to last for 18 days with the participation of 18000 US soldiers and 10000 South Korean soldiers. All this while meetings take place in China for ending nuclear weapons is North Korea. ·    The second front, moving towards Russia from two different directions; namely Romania and Afghanistan. o  In Romania, the United States has declared its intention to install the missile shield system which led Russia to state that it will install new missiles in the Kaliningrad region. This in turn may lead to a return of the cold war, or not so cold, in Europe and maybe to recreate a divided Europe as if the US is trying to foil attempts of some European countries to withdraw Nuclear weapons present on its soil. o  In Afghanistan, the country that constituted since the eighties of the last century, a base for the American War against the USSR. It can be seen that the new military initiatives in this country has not stopped the US from attempting to reach new deals with the Taliban or with some influential quarters and decision cir les within this movement. For the United States has not found the Afghani president, Hamid Karzai, a man suitable or ‘competent’ to implement its policies in the region. He is perceived by the US as week (there are reports that he was refused an entry VISA to the US (which acts as a reminder to what happened earlier with the Shah of Iran). This weakness is what partially explains the turn in the US policy towards talks with those who are in control of the ground in Afghanistan. In this context, it must be recognized that this region, in addition to its geopolitical importance, has supplied consistent funds to the CIA through the drug trade (which used to be organized in liaison with the Taliban). Indeed there are reports that drugs production has increased recently by more than 40 times since the NATO forces has arrived to the region. There two goals of the USA, are complemented by the continuous American activity, both in the military and po9litical fields, in a number of countries in Latin America in conjunction with the conspiracies being prepared against Venezuela and Nicaragua in addition to earlier hot spots such as Honduras and Colombia. These goals and activities also compliment some of the military coups in some African countries, where regimes loyal to France are being substituted to those more loyal to the USA in an attempt to have full control of the African continent. Secondly, regarding the International global crisis in capitalism and its impact on the poor and the working classes This military escalation stems from the attempt of the USA to exert and maintain uni-polar control over the world and to take advantage of this control in order to solve its ongoing structural crisis. Regarding the international global crisis in capitalism, one must point attention to several indicators which enforces the above hypothesis: 1.   Albert Edwards, one of the main analysts for the French Bank Societé Générale, states that the American Bank Goldman Sachs, after eliminating the global competition to Wall Street as a financial centre, is today moving towards the undermining of countries and states. He further elaborates that this Bank (Goldman Sachs) has deliberately covered up the amount of accumulated debt of the Greek State which allowed and encouraged the European banks to provide to Greece in 2009 more than 252 billion US dollars without knowing the full extent of the problem in this country. In this context, Edwards perceives that the prompt attempt of European countries to come to the aid of Greece as not only an attempt to support Greece or other countries on the verge of collapse (Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland); neither is it only to postpone a possible breakdown crisis in the Euro zone. This rapid rescue attempt is seen also as an attempt to prevent the possible bankruptcy of other important countries in the Euro zone such as France and Germany who has loans in excess of 115 billion dollars in Greece, in addition to its scattered loans to various other countries in Southern Europe. What is creating significant concern then is the ghost of collapse which is acting as a reminder to the stage that followed the 1929 depression and which led to the emergence of Nazism and to the Second World War. In any case, it must be pointed out that the Goldman Sachs bank has received a lot of support from the Obama administration in its fiscal and monetary policies which raises the question on the role of the US administration in the current fluctuation of the Euro, which in turn has led to a decrease in European exports and influenced the purchasing power of a wide segment of Europeans leading to an accumulation of socio economic problems including an increase in unemployment and an increase in a trend in some large companies to move towards Asian countries. This question leads to another subsequent question: is the US trying to eliminate economic capitalist clusters that can act as its competitor in the future? And what is the fate of the European Union and the G7 countries in this eventuality? 2.   If one looks towards Asia and particularly towards Japan, it is possible to identify the same trend; namely a rapid degradation in economic conditions. In a report issued in 12 February, the Japanese government admitted that the economic condition is deteriorating at a much rapid pace than it originally estimated and that the industrial activity has been reduced significantly, which in turn has negatively affected employment and consumption. It is expected that the first two quarters in 2010 will be the worst, especially after the significant reduction in Japanese exports as a result of the drop in US demand (which is readopting protective policies to protect its own products against various exports) and also due to the reduction in demand from Europe (which has significantly suffered from the previous increase in the European exchange rate). 3.   If one examines the energy sector, the oil and gas sector particularly, it can be seen that the fluctuation in the prices has led to further control of the markets by the US companies. There are current predictions for an increase in prices in the first half of this year, to coincide with an increase in production levels and an increase in the control of American and British companies to this important commodity and resource. In this context one should see the increased efforts for military and political American presence in Africa (together with may be expected in terms of coups and geopolitical changes all the way from Sudan to the south of this continent) and the associated increase in the Israeli role in Africa; namely as part of ongoing efforts by America to exert full control over the petroleum resources of the whole world. Along the same lines of analysis, one must point attention to recent events in the Islas Malvinas (Falkland Islands) where the return of tensions between the UK and Argentina is attributed to recent oil and gas discoveries there and the subsequent decision by the UK to allow several companies to carry out exploration activities. 4.   This picture for the American trends regarding economic policies and dominance, coinciding with military threats all the way from Afghanistan to Latin American (in other worlds covering almost all the globe) is approaching what one can call a Third World War, albeit undeclared unlike the world wars of the previous century. This trend also acts as an indication that our world will continue to be subjected in the near future to novel crises and conflicts in both the fiscal and economic fields which will have negative destructive impacts on the working classes in the capitalist countries. This is particularly true for European countries; especially since the crises are now threatening not only the weaker European countries but others which are strong in principle such as Germany and France; and where the fiscal and economic measures adopted by these countries do not seem to aim in the first place at alleviating the worsening conditions of their citizens. Thirdly, regarding the region and Arab Situation The region remains very tense, starting with events in Occupied Palestine (especially the escalation in the Israeli aggression and assassination operation by the Mossad) all the way to Iran which is being threatened again by sanctions. The rise in the levels of tension has started on this occasion from Yemen and it escalated to make the whole region between the Arabian Gulf and Africa an extremely tense region where military conflict can break out at any moment. The US, in its attempt to hold all the cards in the region, did not stop at moving towards new sanctions against Iran. It went further to suggest that the region should somewhat be within the NATO where it has been decided to have new military presence in four countries namely Qatar, Bahrain, Emirates and Kuwait. These new forces are being supported by an increased presence of military carriers, cruisers and destroyers. There has also been recent talk about a meeting regarding the Iranian nuclear file between the head of the CIA (Leon Panetta) and a number of Israeli officials including Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barrack and Meir Dagan (head of Mossad). While this meeting may have the declared objective of limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, the effective objective is to bring Iran to adhere to American policy in the region, namely trends in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to limit its support to Hamas. In response, and particularly in response to what is happening in Yemen and to the new American decisions, Iran has decided to shift the ‘battle’ to the Strait of Hormuz and to increase its military presence in this region. In this context it can be seen that events are escalating in view of Israeli threats to attack Iranian nuclear installation, threats which remain as part of the American plan for the region. Going into details, it should be recognized that the US is adopting a policy with different options and fronts; still trying to establish a separation between the Palestinian situation and the situation in other Arab countries, and also to create separation between the Iranian and Syrian policies. In this context, it is important to note the following: ·    There is an above average interest in the relationship with Syria. On the one hand the US has returned its ambassador to Syria which was preceded and followed by visits from various officials within the administration beginning with Daniel Benjamin the liaison officer for counter terrorism in the state department to William Burns. In addition to the French interest and the visit of the French Prime Minister François Fillon to ‘strengthen the relationships between the two countries’. ·    This interest is accompanies with a renewal of the Turkish role as a mediator in the peace process between Syria and Israel, where both Burns and the Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad stressed the importance of this role and the necessity of providing the necessary support for its success. ·        On another front, the US announced on the 10th of February, that in response to new developments regarding Iran and ‘terrorism’, it will multiply several folds the quality and quantity of its weapons and the NATO weapons currently stored in Israeli warehouses. ·    Simultaneously, while the UN General Secretary has called upon Israel to implement the road map, and stated that the partial stop to the building of settlements is illegal; Israel is continuing its efforts for the transformation of the identity of areas and cultural sites of east Jerusalem to turn them into ‘Jewish’; the last attempt of which was the calls to include sites lying under the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron to Israeli national heritage restoration plan. This is in addition to carrying out several acts of aggression against Gaza and in addition to carrying out assassination attempts, the last of which was the assassination of the Hamas leader Mahmoud Al Mabhouh in Dubai, by a group with British, French and other European and Australian passports. ·    As for Iraq, we are witnessing an escalation in the security situation before the parliamentary elections scheduled for the 7th of March, at a time when there is increased talk on ongoing American efforts to secure, establish and strengthen contacts with Iraqi political figures close to Iran and with main figures which exerted significant influence during the Regime of Saddam. ·    The shift in the American position regarding the Presidential election in Egypt must also be noticed; where it seems that the US has decided to abandon Hosni Mubarak who was unable, according to various well informed sources, to rescue his regime from the various dilemmas it is facing. This is in addition to the very strong Islamic opposition facing the regime. In this context, it is rumored that the US is the main power behind the nomination of the previous head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohammad Al Baradii since he is a well respected figure in his country with good connections to the new American Administration. ·    Finally, it must be said that the negative impact of the global crisis in capitalism is still manifesting itself on the economic conditions in the Arab world, albeit to a lesser degree. It must also be stressed that the Arab oil producing countries have once again adhered to American needs by increasing their production: where the Iraqi government has increased production to 12 million barrels a day, in conjunction with increases in other Gulf countries. Whereas in Egypt the economic situation is on the verge of collapse despite the optimistic statement by the minister of finance who said that the level of national debt to GDP has decreased from 110% to 70%. Whereas in Abu Dhabi and Dubai there is still apprehension concerning the investment market. If we take also into account the repeated and ongoing American demands for the use of Arab money and resources in alleviating the worsening conditions of the American economy and corresponding sectors, it can be concluded that the economic conditions in the Arab region will be subjected to worsening conditions which will not be easily overcome. Fourthly, Regarding the Lebanese condition The conditions within the region and within various Arab countries negatively impact Lebanon which is living within alternating ‘calm’ and ‘tense’ states, where the following trends can be observed: ·    For one month now, Israeli officials has been escalating the level of their threats against Lebanon in conjunction with ongoing attempts to force Iran to change its policies vis-à -vis Israel and to further encourage her to cooperate with the US regarding Afghanistan. These threats, which Netanyahu tried to dilute by stating that his government does not plan to attack Lebanon, are accompanied with continuous Israeli air force violations to the Lebanese airspace. This is in addition to the latest kidnapping of a Lebanese citizen from Lebanese territory subsequent to an Israeli force entering into the Lebanese territory currently under the control of the UN forces. It also comes subsequent to statements by various Israeli military officials that attempts to assassinate the general secretary to Hezbollah are still ongoing. It must be noted that the UN forces, tasked with controlling the international Lebanese border and with the implementation of UN resolution 1701 has not made any attempts to put an end to these Israeli violations; neither has it condemned or taken any stance regarding the continuous Israeli declarations on its intent to plan assassination attempts against various Lebanese and Arab citizens. ·    In response to Israeli threats, which are related to American plans for the region and for Iran, we see complete paralysis of the Lebanese government. The new unity government, which saw the light as a result of the détente between Syria and Saudi Arabia, has within it all the contradiction of the Lebanese situation. It was born paralyzed, and because of its complete and utter dependence on external agendas, it is yet unable to take any serious decisions. In many quarters it is often stated that the paralysis is a result of waiting to see how several external events and files will unfold, including the situation between the US and Iran, the role of turkey to re-launch the negotiations between Syria and Israel, in addition to the issue of the expected new negotiations between the Palestinian and the Israelis. As mentioned above, it is said that this waiting will very likely extend to the beginning of the coming summer. ·    In view of the current waiting stage, the Lebanese Bourgeoisie (represented both in the government and in the Parliament) has reneged on several of its decisions, perhaps the most important of which is the modification of the municipality electoral law to reduce the age of voting to 18 years. In fact most of the representatives have voted in contradiction to what they had previously agreed which returned the discussions to the starting point. Simultaneously, reactionary forces have once again resisted calls and movements aiming at granting Lebanese women married to non-Lebanese the right to pass on the Lebanese nationality to her children. ·    In the economic sphere a recent report issued by global investment bank Barclays Capital states that the results are promising and the horizon is difficult particularly regarding the resistance to privatization attempts of the energy and water sectors, and in view of the threat of a ‘sudden war with Israel similar to the 2006 war’. The report adds that the measures for the privatization of the water and electricity sectors will probably be postponed for an additional year. Simultaneously, statements issued by the Ministry of Energy indicate that demand for electricity has increased to 2400 megawatts while the effective production capacity is currently at 1800 megawatts, which implies that the periods for electricity cuts is bound to increase if we take into account the annual growth in demand for electricity. ·    As for the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product this remains high at 180% without any effective solutions to bring it down except for direct indirect taxes and tariffs and continuing efforts by the ministry of finance to increase VAT. ·    For these reasons, strikes are beginning to take place across the country, together with various preparations for social protest against government policies which are going to lead to an increase in depth and breadth of poverty levels; especially since various studies show that the levels of poverty has increased from 28% to 30% in the first two months of this study (and according to some predictions this percentage may further increase to 35%). This is in addition to the latest study on the socio-economic conditions in the country which indicated that 51% of households spend all their income before the end of the month and that 30.6% of households are forced to borrow money on a monthly basis to meet their food and other basic needs. ·    Perhaps the most important strikes was the one called for by Secondary and Technical School Teachers whose salaries have been cut by more than 60% while at the same time their working hours have been increased. This is in addition to ongoing preparations by student and youth movements for large strikes under various political and education related banners and demands, in particular the right of voting, the increase in the budget of the Lebanese public university and the improvement in the conditions of the public education sector in general. ·    Preparations are also ongoing for carrying out widespread activities against the newly proposed rent laws which would put many tenants out on the street. ·    Finally, preparation is underway for a wide demand-based movements and activities, along the lines on the delay in the passing of the budget, and the subsequent problems especially in the field of National Health Service for employees, and the accumulating financial deficit in the social security fund for pensioners, for maternity leave and for health services. A deficit that has reached a value of 630 billion Lebanese pounds as a result of membership reductions granted to the employers and as a result of lack of transparency by the employers and lack of proper commitment and enforcement by the Lebanese state in forcing employers in declaring the correct number of employees and in payment of all related contributions. |
This
report provides a summary of the main political, militarily, economic and social
developments in the last month regarding the international situation in general;
and on the regional and Arab front, with emphasis on the Lebanese situation. In
particular the report addresses the following: